Oil market news and analysis

An independent AIS tracker counted two commercial crossings through the Strait of Hormuz on 9 November, including a Norway-flagged crude oil tanker inbound to Basrah at 05:26 UTC and a bulk carrier with a declared Iranian destination - the first same-day crossing record for today. Its rolling seven-day average is 7 crossings a day versus about 85 before the crisis, and IMF PortWatch has still not published a November 9 figure (latest: one transit on November 1). No source confirms what either vessel carried, so whether commercial oil cargoes are currently passing Hormuz remains unconfirmed.

CENTCOM confirmed US forces disabled the bulk carrier M/V Huda in the Gulf of Oman on Nov 7 after its crew ignored warnings and repeatedly tried to violate the naval blockade on Iran - 147 vessels redirected and five disabled since July. JMIC Update 112 counts 177 incidents since March and about 208 ships anchored off Fujairah, Khor Fakkan, Musandam and Sohar. Qatar says mediation made substantial progress. Whether commercial oil cargoes currently pass Hormuz remains unconfirmed.

A Qatar-mediated proposal with reported Iranian approval reaches President Trump's desk on 9 November: reopen the Strait of Hormuz on day two of a deal in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade, ending Iranian attacks on ships, and unfreezing $8 billion in Iranian funds held in Qatar. The plan is unaccepted, faces senior US opposition, and nothing has changed on the water - PortWatch's latest print still shows one transit on 1 November, so commercial oil passage remains unconfirmed.

INTERTANKO's weekly advice says attacks on ships in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz remain at a high level and have grown in ferocity, with attackers using two munitions per strike, targeting engine rooms aft, and in at least two cases attaching limpet-style mines to underway hulls by small boat. Iran's Army Navy and the IRGC separately claimed a third tanker mine strike on 9 November and warned the strait stays closed unless 'all threats are lifted'; no maritime authority has confirmed it. PortWatch still logs one transit (1 Nov) - commercial oil passage remains unconfirmed.

Iran's IRGC said overnight it destroyed navigation aids on Hormuz's southern cliffs and that no unauthorized vessel transited, while its spokesman denied mines had been cleared and a third 'violating' tanker was reported exploded in 24 hours. All claims are unverified by maritime authorities. PortWatch still shows one transit (Nov 1); whether commercial oil is passing remains unconfirmed.

New maritime-authority and industry data published Nov 8 show Hormuz traffic reduced but not zero: independent tracking logged single-to-low-double-digit daily crossings, US forces assisted about 30 transits a day on Nov 5-7, and Lloyd's List Intelligence put traffic near 20% of prewar levels. UKMTO confirmed eight attacks in the strait and three in the Gulf over the past week. Whether any transiting vessel carries commercial oil cargo remains unconfirmed; PortWatch's official count still shows one transit on Nov 1.

US President Donald Trump said in a CNN interview on Nov 8 that the chance of a full-scale US attack on Iran was "very small," depending on whether Iran signs "a very strong agreement," while loud blasts were again heard in the Strait of Hormuz that day and IRNA reported explosions on Qeshm Island. The strait remains effectively closed: PortWatch's latest print still shows one transit on Nov 1 versus a pre-crisis norm near 85 a day, and whether any commercial oil cargo is currently passing through Hormuz cannot be confirmed.

Iraq's foreign minister said Iraq has reached understandings with the US to export oil through Hormuz via a shipping lane near Oman, citing $60bn in war-related losses; no lane details or start date exist and no cargo movement under it is evidenced. Separately, The Maritime Executive detailed Saturday's two tanker attacks, including an outbound projectile strike reported to UKMTO by a ship security officer, with crews safe. PortWatch still shows one transit on Nov 1; current commercial oil passage remains unconfirmed.

Hormuz remains effectively closed on official counts - PortWatch's latest print shows one transit on Nov 1 versus a pre-crisis norm near 85 a day - but Windward counted 16 crossings in the 24 hours to Nov 5, three running dark, and Kpler estimated 10.23m bpd of Gulf crude transited in October, suggesting limited, partially dark traffic persists. Iran is reviewing a Qatari bridge proposal pairing IAEA access with a US blockade lift, asset release and a day-two reopening; neither side has accepted. Sunday's fresh Iranian tanker-strike claims remain unverified by any maritime authority.

Iranian state media suggested Saturday evening's explosions in southern Iran, including on Qeshm Island, were linked to Iranian military activity rather than U.S. strikes. Both sides report ship strikes in or near Hormuz — none independently confirmed — and UKMTO logged a bulk-carrier incident east of Khor Fakkan. Saudi Arabia confirmed debris damage to an Aramco administrative building in Riyadh, and Qatar says US-Iran talks continue. PortWatch still shows one transit on Nov. 1 versus a pre-crisis norm near 85 a day; no evidence commercial oil passage has resumed.

All six GCC states signed a framework agreement in Bahrain on Nov. 8 to complete a 1,768-2,100km Gulf railway, now 55.9% built with full operations targeted for December 2030, explicitly framed as resilience after Hormuz disruption cut port calls. It moves no oil today: IMF PortWatch still logs one transit (Nov. 1) against a pre-crisis norm near 85 daily, and Iran's mine-hit tanker claims remain unconfirmed by any maritime authority.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed — IMF PortWatch logged one transit on Nov. 1 versus a pre-crisis norm near 85 a day. On Nov. 7 the US disabled the St. Kitts-flagged cargo ship M/V Huda in the Gulf of Oman after it visited an Iranian port and tried to leave, CENTCOM said; 22 people were later rescued from a Gulf cargo ship. On Nov. 8 Iran's IRGC claimed two to three tankers struck mines and burned near the strait; no maritime authority has confirmed that.

US fighter jets including an A-10 were damaged in Iranian strikes on a Jordanian air base, new detail on retaliation for US tanker attacks. IAEA referred Iran to the UNSC. Hormuz transits remain in single digits below the 10-day average.

On September 9, Iranian-attributed attacks struck commercial tankers at anchor off Dubai (1 killed, 1 missing) and in Iraqi waters (drone strike on New Andros, no casualties), while UKMTO reported multiple vessels hit by disabling fire across the Gulf. Hormuz oil flows fell to 2 million bpd, down from 8-9 million before fighting resumed August 30.

South Korea has sent an inspection team to the UAE to assess Hormuz security, with no decision yet on troops, and Iran warns any Korean military role would be treated as support for US 'aggression'. Britain separately published sanctions legislation including new powers to target ships. Neither changes oil flows today; Brent was reported above $100 on Wednesday.

An ENOC director puts the cost of moving an oil cargo through Hormuz at $10m-$20m, with war-risk cover of up to 10% of cargo value and some shippers going uninsured. Iran separately claims it downed a US drone over the strait and hit two destroyers; CENTCOM has confirmed neither.

A liquefied natural gas tanker has been damaged in the Emirati port of Khor Fakkan, with no attribution, as Iran threatens tankers in Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports. A US official called Iran's Jordan barrage ineffective, with 18 of 20 missiles intercepted. Six vessels crossed Hormuz on Tuesday against a ten-day average of twelve.

Iran's IRGC says it captured a US uncrewed submersible, a Dive-LD built by Anduril, at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. The Pentagon says the drone simply malfunctioned while surveying, and Anduril confirms losing the vehicle. The two accounts conflict, and no change to oil movements has been reported.

Houthi missiles and drones hit Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73 and forcing temporary shutdowns, opening a second front away from Hormuz. Targets named include Aramco sites and the Jazan industrial hub; Riyadh retaliated with strikes in Yemen. AP warns Bab al-Mandeb shipping is now also at risk.

Goldman Sachs says the intensifying and broadening attacks on Gulf shipping have raised the probability of Brent exceeding $120 a barrel, with front-month Brent at $99.44 on Wednesday. NBC News reports only a limited number of ships are moving, under US escort on a route off Oman, while Iran insists on a route of its choosing. The IRGC's claim of ten vessels hit remains uncorroborated.