Oil market news and analysis

IRGC claims struck Togo-flagged tanker Trend in Hormuz overnight Sep 17-18; no independent verification. UKMTO reports separate security incident near Khasab; CENTCOM redirected 104 vessels. Oil passage unconfirmed.

Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic on insurance basis. Kpler data shows 4 visible commodity vessel transits Sep 17, below 10-day average of ~16. IRGC claims to have struck an oil tanker in the strait on Sep 18 per IRNA; independent corroboration not yet confirmed. Oil passage unconfirmed.

Iran and Oman reportedly near agreement on a Hormuz shipping corridor per The Malaysian Reserve. Windward counted 12 strait transits Sep 16, double the prior day, with three VLCCs crossing dark and inbound in ballast via the southern corridor. Insurance-based closure remains operative; oil passage unconfirmed.

Iranian container vessel struck near Qeshm Sep 13 with one dead, hours after Salalah deal to reopen Hormuz. UKMTO reported a separate vessel strike Sep 12 with fire and evacuation. Oil passage unconfirmed.

Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic on insurance basis. Reuters records 4 transits Sep 15 (down from 7, well below 18/day average), no VLCCs or LNG carriers; Windward counts 9 crossings same window. St Helena struck by projectile Sep 14 and stranded. Oil passage unconfirmed; AIS gaps and dark routes mean actual movements may exceed reported counts.

Crude tanker rates hit new highs as ~24 strikes in two weeks push risk to its peak since the war began; MEG-China VLCC freight at $24/bbl (25% of crude price). US destroyed 2 Iranian boats after a drone seizure attempt near Hormuz; Iran claims fishing boats near Kargan were attacked. Omani-led talks to reopen the strait collapsed yesterday; container shipping has been closed for 6+ months with rates surpassing Covid-era records.

Kpler data shows commodity vessel transits through Strait of Hormuz fell to just four on Monday Sept 14, down from 10 the previous day and 93% below pre-war norms. Meanwhile TankerTrackers satellite imagery from Sept 14 reports first bi-directional daytime VLCC traffic since crisis began — a cautiously positive signal that does not confirm oil cargoes completing strait crossings. Insurance-based closure remains operative.

TankerTrackers satellite imagery from Sep 14 shows bi-directional daytime VLCC traffic in the Strait of Hormuz — the first observable resumption of large tanker transits since the crisis began. EL GAIA accounts remain conflicting (IRGC mine vs CENTCOM drone). PGSA blacklist expanded to 77 vessels. Oil passage still unconfirmed; insurance closure operative per snapshot.

Panama-flagged tanker EL GAIA was struck on Sep 14; IRGC says mine south of Hormuz, CENTCOM says Iranian missile/drone. Vessel engulfed in flames per IRGC, being towed per CENTCOM. Insurance closure unchanged; oil passage unconfirmed.

Houthis captured Perim Island at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait mouth on Sep 11, threatening the alternative shipping route for Gulf oil. The planned Sep 14 Oman Hormuz meeting was postponed again. Iranian cargo vessel struck near Qeshm Sep 13, 1 dead.

The Iran-Gulf Hormuz shipping meeting planned for Sep 14 in Salalah has been postponed indefinitely pending more 'conducive conditions,' undermining the corridor framework reported earlier. Iran expanded its Hormuz blacklist to 56 tankers with fines, confiscation and detention threats. An Iranian vessel was struck near Qeshm Sep 13 and Saudi's East-West pipeline temporarily shut. Oil rose to $107.54 Brent. Oil passage through Hormuz remains unconfirmed.

Iran-Gulf states shipping meeting set for Sep 14 in Oman after previous postponement [2]. September AIS data shows 266 strait crossings and 19.3M bbl estimated oil exported, down sharply from pre-war levels [1]. Insurance-based closure remains operative and oil passage through Hormuz cannot be confirmed from these sources.

MT EL GAIA, a Panama-flagged oil tanker, was struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Sep 13 causing fire, drift and an oil spill near Jazirat Musandam; 13 of 14 crew rescued, 1 missing. A separate strike near Qeshm killed 1 and wounded 3-4. AIS data shows only 20 transits (11 in/9 out) all day Sep 13, with just 2 crude tankers observed. Hormuz corridor talks postponed. Insurance-based closure remains operative; oil passage unconfirmed.

A commercial vessel was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on September 12 at approximately 23:00 UTC, per UKMTO Warning 134-26 published September 13. Crew condition, damage extent, and environmental impact remain unconfirmed; no party has claimed responsibility. Region Alert's Sep 12 assessment shows Hormuz transits at seven vessels/day (94% below pre-conflict 125/day), with US protection windows narrowed to two daily slots and the Saudi East-West pipeline still shut. Insurance-based closure remains operative; oil passage cannot be confirmed from these sources.

Iran declared Hormuz closed Sep 13; CENTCOM says tankers still transit. US redirected 100 ships in 60 days. Protection windows narrowed to 2 daily slots. Oil flows persist under insurance closure. Iran claim vs observed transits unresolved.

Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial shipping by war-risk insurance Day 196. PortWatch 6 transits Sep 6 = 7% of 85/day normal; VLCC insurance ~$10M at 40x pre-crisis, 6 P&I clubs withdrawn. 448 vessels stranded offshore; naval convoys move under escort.

QatarEnergy's first Qatar-linked LNG shipment since late July exited Hormuz Sep 10, while non-Iranian Gulf crude exports averaged above 10M bpd over the past seven days — the first time in ~2 months — driven by U.S.-facilitated southern-route transits [1][2]. JMIC assesses Hormuz threat as SEVERE; Iran's economic squeeze narrows its leverage but Tehran shows no concession signal [1][3].

South Korea and Iran foreign ministers discussed Hormuz by phone Sep 11; Seoul reviewing military deployment with no decision. BRICS Business Council formed working group on Hormuz insurance premiums.

Houthis captured strategic Perim island controlling Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Sep 11, threatening a second oil chokepoint alongside Hormuz. Hormuz transits stayed at 7 ships, Maersk raised freight rates. Iran confirmed Gulf shipping talks in Oman Monday.

Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline on Sep 11 after drone attacks from Iraq hit Riyadh and Medina, removing a key 7M bpd bypass for Gulf oil. IRGC claimed seizure of a US sail drone at Hormuz entrance as transits fell to 7 ships. [1][2][3]