Fresh official and industry figures published on November 8 give the clearest picture yet of what is actually moving through the Strait of Hormuz: not nothing, but far less than normal, and increasingly under military assistance.

The Joint Maritime Information Center's November 8 advisory says commercial shipping through the strait remained well below 2025 levels, with independent tracking showing single-digit to low double-digit daily crossings, while US military data indicated an average of about 30 US-assisted transits per day from November 5 to 7 [2]. The National, citing Lloyd's List Intelligence, put overall strait traffic at about 20 per cent of its prewar level, with most ships choosing not to run the risk [1]. The two measures are consistent: a small residual of independent commercial transits plus a substantial stream of US-facilitated movements. Neither source identifies cargoes, so whether any of these vessels are carrying commercial oil cannot be confirmed from them. IMF PortWatch's latest weekly print still records just one completed transit, on November 1, against a pre-crisis norm near 85 a day [1].

The same reporting period logged continued violence on the water. UKMTO confirmed eight attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and three in the wider Arabian Gulf over the past week; three of the affected vessels sank and five more had to be rescued, with further incidents known but not independently verified [1]. The November 5 explosion at the waterline of an outbound tanker was the fifth reported attack off Oman's Musandam coast since November 1, and IRGC harassment - drone overflights, targeted surveillance of merchant ships and occasional radio warnings - persisted [2]. Iran's Revolutionary Guard separately claimed at least twelve ships have caught fire since the start of the month, mostly after hitting naval mines; few of those mine claims have been confirmed by UKMTO or other monitors, and the Institute for the Study of War assesses they likely aim to raise shipping companies' risk perceptions [1].

The military posture is hardening on both sides. A third US aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, is expected to arrive in the region this week, and US Central Command has assigned a task force known as Iron Gate to stop goods and revenue reaching Iran over its land borders [1]. Iran says the strait will not reopen until the US makes concessions in negotiations, while Egypt said its foreign minister and his Turkish counterpart discussed de-escalation on Sunday [1].

For readers watching flows, the strait is best described as throttled, not sealed. Transit counts sit far below baseline, a meaningful share now runs under US assistance, and attacks on merchant shipping continue at roughly one a day. What cannot yet be confirmed is how much oil, if any, those transits are actually carrying.