US President Donald Trump said on November 8 that the chance of a full-scale American military attack on Iran was "very small," a notable softening in tone even as loud blasts were heard repeatedly in the Strait of Hormuz the same day. In a phone interview with CNN, Trump said any further strikes would depend on whether Iran signs "a very strong agreement," and repeated the phrase "very small chance" five times, according to a report by the Seoul-based Financial News [1]. He said the US military was ready to resume attacks, noting "we have three aircraft carriers. Another one just arrived," and claimed the US was "targeting 38 bridges that we can literally destroy within an hour" [1]. Trump also asserted that Iran's air defense system had collapsed, that Tehran could produce only a few missiles and drones at around 10-15 percent of capacity, and that he did not want to strike infrastructure that would take ten years to rebuild, adding that Iran "desperately wants" negotiations [1].

The restraint signal has not paused the military pressure. The United States, which had refrained from attacking mainland Iran since early September, struck Qeshm Island in the strait on November 3 and again on November 6, strikes Trump said were intended to eliminate Iran's air-defense network; Iran's IRNA news agency reported several explosions heard on Qeshm on November 8 and claimed they were believed to have been caused by an attack [1]. The report did not attribute the loud blasts heard in the strait itself that day. The diplomatic track runs through Qatar: the US is believed to want Iran's denuclearization and guarantees of free passage through Hormuz, while Iran insists Washington first accept seven demands including lifting sanctions, access to frozen assets and war reparations [1].

Nothing in the interview changes what can be measured on the water. IMF PortWatch's latest weekly print still records one transit on November 1 against a pre-crisis norm near 85 a day, with the next print due Tuesday. AIS shows 83 vessels under way in the wider Gulf watch box, but movement inside the Gulf is not a completed strait crossing, and roughly 800 vessels remain stranded in the area. Whether any commercial oil cargo is currently passing through Hormuz cannot be confirmed from official crossing data, and the platform's insurance and carrier-suspension records are unchanged from prior reports.