Oil market news and analysis

Brent hit $108.68 and WTI $103.45 on Sep 11, both benchmarks set to end the week above $100 for the first time since mid-May [1][2]. Houthi advances on Mokha near Bab al-Mandeb and continued tanker attacks through Hormuz are driving a 6% two-day rally. RBC warns a full Saudi-Houthi war could push prices higher [2].

Four unidentified projectiles hit two vessels near Oman's Khasab on Sep 10, one ablaze; UKMTO Warning 133-26 unattributed. IRGC struck a US Saildrone Explorer drone in Hormuz Sep 11, unconfirmed by US. Brent rose $106→$109 as transits fell to lowest since May, no VLCC out for a week.

Strait of Hormuz transits fell to just 2 ships on Thursday Sep 10, the lowest level for the month, while Bab al-Mandeb dropped to 6 vessels from 30. 514 commercial vessels remain stuck in the Arabian Gulf. Saudi Yanbu bypass loadings rebounded to 3.7M bpd. Brent at $103.80.

Houthis captured Yemen's Red Sea port city Mocha on Sep 10, tightening grip on Bab al-Mandeb Strait — a second major oil chokepoint beside Hormuz. UNSC emergency session held.

CSIS satellite analysis shows Pickaxe Mountain construction surge; AIS tracker shows 22 crossings 24h with 1.58M bbl oil export; IMO confirms 75 incidents, 22 seafarer fatalities.

Iran widened its prohibited maritime zone beyond the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea on Sep 9, a significant geographic escalation. The IAEA board voted 23-3 to refer Iran to the UNSC over nuclear non-compliance — the first such move in two decades. Hormuz transits fell to 7 vs 12 previous day; Brent at $101.21.

Strait remains effectively shut with 6 transits on Sep 6 at 7% of typical. At least one sailor killed and another missing from Iranian attacks on noncompliant vessels. Six P&I clubs withdrew war-risk cover; Brent at $102.04, +2.22% 24h.

US fighter jets including an A-10 were damaged in Iranian strikes on a Jordanian air base, new detail on retaliation for US tanker attacks. IAEA referred Iran to the UNSC. Hormuz transits remain in single digits below the 10-day average.

On September 9, Iranian-attributed attacks struck commercial tankers at anchor off Dubai (1 killed, 1 missing) and in Iraqi waters (drone strike on New Andros, no casualties), while UKMTO reported multiple vessels hit by disabling fire across the Gulf. Hormuz oil flows fell to 2 million bpd, down from 8-9 million before fighting resumed August 30.

South Korea has sent an inspection team to the UAE to assess Hormuz security, with no decision yet on troops, and Iran warns any Korean military role would be treated as support for US 'aggression'. Britain separately published sanctions legislation including new powers to target ships. Neither changes oil flows today; Brent was reported above $100 on Wednesday.

An ENOC director puts the cost of moving an oil cargo through Hormuz at $10m-$20m, with war-risk cover of up to 10% of cargo value and some shippers going uninsured. Iran separately claims it downed a US drone over the strait and hit two destroyers; CENTCOM has confirmed neither.

A liquefied natural gas tanker has been damaged in the Emirati port of Khor Fakkan, with no attribution, as Iran threatens tankers in Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports. A US official called Iran's Jordan barrage ineffective, with 18 of 20 missiles intercepted. Six vessels crossed Hormuz on Tuesday against a ten-day average of twelve.

Iran's IRGC says it captured a US uncrewed submersible, a Dive-LD built by Anduril, at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. The Pentagon says the drone simply malfunctioned while surveying, and Anduril confirms losing the vehicle. The two accounts conflict, and no change to oil movements has been reported.

Houthi missiles and drones hit Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73 and forcing temporary shutdowns, opening a second front away from Hormuz. Targets named include Aramco sites and the Jazan industrial hub; Riyadh retaliated with strikes in Yemen. AP warns Bab al-Mandeb shipping is now also at risk.

Goldman Sachs says the intensifying and broadening attacks on Gulf shipping have raised the probability of Brent exceeding $120 a barrel, with front-month Brent at $99.44 on Wednesday. NBC News reports only a limited number of ships are moving, under US escort on a route off Oman, while Iran insists on a route of its choosing. The IRGC's claim of ten vessels hit remains uncorroborated.

CENTCOM says it destroyed five more Iranian tankers on 8 September after Iran targeted a US warship twice in two days. Iran retaliated with missiles at Al Azraq base in Jordan, which says it downed 18 of 20, and claimed further hits on US ships and eight tankers that remain uncorroborated. Hormuz transits slipped to six on Tuesday.

Two further accounts of Saturday's US strikes on three Iranian tankers restate claims already covered here. The new material is diplomatic and human: AP reports Washington, London, Paris and Berlin now want Iran referred to the UN Security Council over its nuclear nonproliferation obligations, and gives the first detailed account of this week's strike on a wedding in southern Iran, with at least five killed and two wounded girls interviewed in hospital.

Fresh accounts of Saturday's US strikes on three Iranian tankers restate the claims already covered here, but add two new political-military signals: CENTCOM says it will "if necessary, destroy Iran's limited and exposed oil fleet," and President Trump has repeatedly threatened sovereignty over the strait, posting a map showing it as "new US territory." Tehran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei also warns of a "new strategy."

A BBC-sourced account of Saturday's US-Iran tanker exchange restates the strike claims already covered here, but adds a hard consumer number: US diesel averaged $5.85 a gallon on Friday against $3.71 a year ago, above the 2022 all-time high this feed previously flagged only as a possibility. Iranian state media also give new detail on the crews, and the BBC says CENTCOM has not commented.

Two further accounts of Saturday's US-Iran exchange add little new on the strikes themselves, but an AP-sourced report ties the disruption to a new domestic benchmark: US gasoline is expected to average $4.03 a gallon on Labor Day, above the 2012 record, with diesel at a record too. Tehran, meanwhile, now frames the US tanker strikes as an attempt to close the strait.