The clearest explanation yet for why the Strait of Hormuz stays empty despite Washington's escorts has come from a shipper rather than a government. Paul Bradshaw, a director at Emirates National Oil Company, told the APPEC conference in Singapore on Wednesday that transit costs through the strait have escalated into the $10 million to $20 million range [1]. Cargo insurance alone can run at five or six percent of cargo value, roughly $10 million on a large shipment, and the additional war risk premium on an outbound transit has gone from effectively zero before the war to as much as 10 percent of the cargo [1]. Some market participants, he said, have simply stopped insuring. Bradshaw also described a shrinking pool of owners willing to take the risk, and said more national oil companies are bringing shipping in-house so they can control their own exits during flare-ups [1]. Those figures put a concrete price on the insurance-driven closure this feed has been tracking since the corridor's status flipped to restricted.

Two uncorroborated Iranian claims sit alongside that. State media reported that air defences shot down a US drone over the strait near Bandar Abbas, an account US Central Command did not confirm [2]. A separate IRGC statement carried by state media said Iran also attacked two US destroyers, with the US military yet to respond [3]. Neither has been linked to any change in oil movements.

The traffic numbers are unchanged: six commodity vessels crossed on Tuesday against a ten-day average of about twelve [3]. Brent was quoted up 1.3 percent at $98.25 a barrel early on Wednesday, its highest since late July [2].