Three developments since our last update change the picture in and around the Strait of Hormuz: a reported US strike on an Iranian tanker, a reported fatal attack on Saudi crude carriers, and a hardening diplomatic line at the United Nations.

Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that a small Iranian oil tanker was hit by four US missiles about six nautical miles off Kharg Island, in the anchorage area, on Saturday morning. Its correspondent on Kharg said there were no casualties and that the crew was evacuating, with authorities assessing the damage. CENTCOM did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and there was no immediate official Iranian announcement [6] [2]. Kharg is Iran's main crude export terminal — about 90 per cent of its oil moved through it before the war — and lies in the northern Gulf, not in the strait itself. The report matters because it follows accounts that Washington had paused operations to give diplomacy room; it remains an Iranian media claim, not a confirmed US action.

Separately, the National Security Journal reported that two tankers carrying Saudi crude were attacked while transiting the strait earlier this week, one operated by Bahri, killing two crew members, with Riyadh blaming Iran. That account is not corroborated elsewhere in these reports and does not match the single tanker strike UKMTO confirmed east of Musandam on Monday [4].

Traffic data remains grim. Kpler counted only four commodity vessels through Hormuz on Thursday, down from nine on Wednesday and below a 10-day average of about 15, against roughly 125 a day before the war. Energy Secretary Chris Wright's claim of more than 17 million barrels on Monday — which he says, with pipeline bypasses, exceeds prewar exports — is not visible in commercial tracking data, partly because convoy traffic switches transponders off [4]. US benchmark crude rose above $91 and US diesel hit a record $5.85 a gallon on Friday [1] [4].

CENTCOM says it struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, inside the strait, on Sunday, describing the action as retaliation for IRGC personnel preparing sea mine-equipped rockets there [1].

At the UN, Qatar sent identical letters to the secretary-general and Security Council president rejecting Iran's claims and invoking Resolution 2817 (2026), which it says condemned the attacks, affirmed navigational rights in Hormuz and condemned any Iranian act or threat aimed at closing the strait [5].

US intelligence assessments cited by the New York Times and relayed by Ynet say Tehran now better understands the leverage Hormuz gives it and may escalate; Trump is not currently pursuing negotiations, betting economic pressure will force concessions over the strait [3].