Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to four commodity vessels on Monday September 14, down from ten the day before, per preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters and The National [1][3]. Two dry bulk carriers exited the strait; two empty oil tankers entered. The figures exclude vessels that may have switched off AIS transponders. Before the war began February 28, the strait typically handled ~125 large commercial vessels daily [1][3].

The same week, TankerTrackers published satellite imagery from September 14 showing bi-directional daytime VLCC supertanker traffic through the strait — the first observable resumption of large tanker transits since the crisis began [2]. The firm also reported increased ship-to-ship transfers of crude, LNG and LPG in the Gulf of Oman. However, commodity-vessel traffic remained substantially below normal: only 4 vessels exited and 10 entered the Gulf over the weekend versus a 10-day average of 14/day [2].

The EL GAIA incident on September 14 remains disputed. IRGC Navy said the tanker struck naval mines south of Hormuz and declared the strait closed under smart control [4]. CENTCOM rejected the mine account, saying the vessel was first struck by an Iranian missile last month, hit again by a drone over the weekend while off Oman, and is being towed by a regional partner [4]. No independent confirmation of either account.

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority expanded its blacklist to 77 vessels, up from 56, warning fines, detention and confiscation for violators — ships cooperating with listed vessels including via STS transfers also risk listing [5]. A UKMTO delayed report confirmed a vessel struck by an unknown projectile in the strait on September 12; no damage or environmental impact reported [5]. Gulf states postponed Hormuz shipping talks with Iran [3][5]. Brent crude rose to ~$107-108 on September 15.

Oil passage through Hormuz remains unconfirmed. VLCC daytime movement is a cautiously positive signal but does not prove oil cargoes are completing strait crossings — VLCCs could be moving within the Gulf without transiting the full strait [2]. Insurance-based closure remains operative and commercial viability is not demonstrated by AIS vessels under way in the wider Gulf.