The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic on an insurance basis, but oil is moving through a shuttle-and-ship-to-ship system that independent trackers cannot fully verify.

Vessel transits through the strait fell to two on 21 September, down from 10 the day before, per Reuters [1]. The Isle of Man-flagged crude tanker LR Stephanie was struck by an unidentified projectile while entering the waterway, with minor crew injuries; a separate LPG carrier was also attacked that day per Marisks Intelligence [1]. Two tankers were struck in the strait on 21 September, consistent with the prior post [1].

On 23 September, an explosion was heard near Iran's Qeshm Island inside the strait. IRNA said the noise came from the sea direction and that no rockets or missiles struck the island; local authorities have issued no formal explanation [2]. The source and cause remain unconfirmed.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has restarted at a low rate, with Aramco working toward roughly 4 million barrels per day. A full restart could take weeks [3]. Satellite data show Saudi crude moving through Hormuz averaging 2.9 million barrels per day over the last six days, up from roughly 700,000 barrels per day in August [3]. Whether this represents escorted transits or shuttle-transfer volumes is not independently corroborated.

Iran's seven-day reopening offer, first reported 22 September, was conveyed to Washington through mediators, with Tehran calling for permanent-resolution talks [4]. Brent crude fell below $100 per barrel following the report [4]. Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers hit a record 7.2 million barrels per day for September 26-to-date (a forward-looking Kpler figure), with shore-side support at Fujairah and Sohar reportedly at or near capacity [5]. If GoO STS saturates, further export growth would require longer, less efficient shuttle routes to West Coast India or Malaysia [5].

Oil passage through Hormuz cannot be fully confirmed from visible counts or shuttle data alone. The divergence between US-claimed escorted volumes and tracker-recorded transits persists without corroboration.