A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz at 1750 UTC on October 1, catching fire, according to UKMTO Warning 147-26 [1]. The crew was reported safe; the vessel's identity, flag, cargo, damage extent and environmental impact remain unknown [1]. UKMTO did not attribute responsibility [1]. This is a fourth distinct attack cluster, following three attacks on Sept 29 disclosed via warnings 144-26, 145-26 and 146-26 [1]. The prior Joint Maritime Information Center assessment counted four confirmed attacks or disruptions in the 96 hours before Oct 1 and maintained the regional threat level at SEVERE, warning deliberate attacks on commercial shipping remain highly likely [1]. Iran's semi-official Fars News reported a 2.5-million-barrel supertanker hit 8 km off Oman's coast while on an unauthorized route [2], consistent with but not yet corroborated by UKMTO's report.

Oil flow data paints a mixed picture. Kpler's Sept 30 publication shows non-Iranian crude through Hormuz averaging 13.5 million bpd for the week to Sep 28 — matching the prewar baseline [3]. JP Morgan estimates 17.5M bpd (98% prewar) and Vortexa puts crude at a six-month high of 14M bpd [3]. Goldman Sachs estimates total Persian Gulf crude exports above 23M bpd last week [3]. However, refined product shipments remain severely constrained, roughly half the 2025 average according to Goldman [3], and about 40% of Gulf crude now bypasses Hormuz via pipelines versus 17% before the war [4][5]. The Saudi East-West pipeline, shut by a drone strike on Sept 11, shows loading at Yanbu suggesting a restart [3].

Insurance-based closure remains operative and independent oil passage counts stay unconfirmed [1][3]. US military escorts and ship-to-ship transfers off UAE/Oman have enabled the rebound, but the arrangement depends on sustained US protection [4][5]. Washington and Tehran have restarted talks focused on freedom of navigation, with Iran proposing reopening in exchange for asset unfreezing and sanctions relief; Washington rejected the plan [3]. A US buildup of roughly 9,000 Marines and additional carrier groups is underway [4].

Material uncertainty persists on actual vessel-level oil movements through the strait: Kpler figures are estimates, the Oct 1 attack details are unconfirmed, and the insurance-based closure was not lifted.