A QatarEnergy-linked tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz on September 10 with a cargo from Ras Laffan to Pakistan — the first known LNG shipment aboard a Qatar-linked vessel since late July, Baird Maritime/Reuters reported [2]. Two other QatarEnergy vessels (Al Ghashamiya, Al Daayen) entered the strait on Sep 9 and 6 respectively [2].

U.S.-facilitated southern-route transits outnumber AIS traffic roughly 3:1: 86 facilitated outbound and 79 inbound versus 22 AIS outbound and 23 inbound over the past week, UKMTO data shows [1]. Vessels transmitting AIS have mainly used the northern route through Iranian waters; the agency flagged UAE-facilitated ships with transponders off that it cannot independently verify [1]. Combined crude exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Oman averaged above 10 million bpd over the past seven complete UTC days, TankerTrackers said — the first time in about two months since the Islamabad Memorandum collapsed and the U.S. blockade resumed [1]. Iranian crude exports remain at zero [1].

Visible Hormuz traffic stayed at seven on Thursday, below the 10-day average of 15, with two Panamax vessels exiting and five entering, per Kpler data as of 0306 GMT [2]. Bab el-Mandeb held stronger at 26 vessels versus a 10-day average of about 27 [2]. JMIC continues to assess the Hormuz threat as SEVERE; the southern Omani route accounted for 19 of 32 projectile strikes since July 6 [1].

A new U.S. economic squeeze is narrowing Iran's room, with Treasury Secretary Bessent describing a "one-two punch" of blockade and sanctions [3]. Former negotiator Dennis Ross said the clearest path to a deal runs through shipping fees: Iran could drop a toll demand while retaining rights to charge for navigational, security or environmental services, and "if you could announce the Strait were reopened, I think Trump would do a deal" [3]. Whether economic pressure forces concessions remains uncertain; Iranian hardliners may see endurance as leverage rather than a reason to yield [3].