Crude tanker rates have broken to fresh highs as Iranian and US attacks across the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz push shipping risk to its highest level since the war began. The pace of attacks has accelerated over the past two weeks, with roughly 24 successful strikes claimed by both sides, 8 attributed to the US. Shuttle tanker operations facilitated by US Navy convoys continue to move barrels out of the Gulf, but owners and charterers increasingly absorb the risk premium through freight rather than halting movements. MEG-China VLCC freight has reached $24/bbl, up from $17 at the start of the conflict and ~$5 before the war; Gulf of Oman cargo rates are at $12/bbl. Freight now represents 25% of the crude price for MEG loadings, the highest level of the conflict [1].

The US military said on Tuesday it destroyed two Iranian boats after they attempted to seize an American unmanned surface vessel (Saildrone) in waters off Hormuz. All surface drones remain fully accounted for, Capt. Tim Hawkins said. Iran's Fars, linked to the IRGC, reported enemy drones targeted two fishing boats near Kargan overnight, with several fishermen missing [2].

Omani-led talks to resolve Hormuz passage collapsed yesterday, dealing another blow to shippers. The Strait has been closed to container shipping for more than half a year; 978 vessels have completed outbound transits and 717 inbound since the conflict began, but container ships account for just 6% — over 100 individual sailings. UKMTO rates transiting risk at its highest level. Average spot rates from China to Jeddah have reached $10,870 per 40ft, surpassing Covid-19 record highs [3].