Hormuz crossings remain near zero. hormuz.now recorded 2 AIS-visible commercial ships crossing on Oct 3 (both inbound, no tankers), against a pre-crisis baseline of ~85/day [1]. The 7-day rolling average sits at 5.3/day [1]. IMF PortWatch has not yet published Oct 3 data (latest: Sep 27) [1].

Regional oil flow appears near pre-war levels but this reflects bypass routes, not Hormuz transit. Kpler told BBC that Middle East oil flow reached 92% of pre-war baseline for the final week of September, with ~40% exiting via pipelines to Red Sea/Gulf of Oman ports [2]. Iran exports are near zero after the US naval blockade imposed mid-July [2]. Oil products remain severely constrained at under 1M bpd through Hormuz vs 3.5M pre-war [2].

Attacks continue. UKMTO Warning 148-26 reports a tanker struck by unknown projectile Oct 1 during outbound transit, fire and blackout, fire extinguished, vessel underway, no casualties [3]. Six ships have been hit in one week per UKMTO; Iran's non-compliant list stands at 82 vessels [3]. Insurance-based closure remains operative [4].

The strait has been effectively closed to commercial traffic since Feb 28, 2026 (day 217) per straitofhormuz.report [4]. US CENTCOM reports escorting >1B barrels in two months but independent oil passage counts remain unconfirmed [4].