The Trump administration is adding a new argument to its case on the Strait of Hormuz: that the waterway's leverage is temporary. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Fox Business interview this week that the strait will become a "worthless piece of water" within two years as planned land pipelines bypass the chokepoint, and President Trump used social media on Thursday to highlight a news report on Syria's effort to turn the port of Baniyas on the Mediterranean into a westward route to international markets for Gulf exporters [1]. Neither is a corridor event, but both show how Washington is framing the waterway's future as November midterms approach.

The same AP report adds flow and price detail to the dispute we have been tracking. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC on Wednesday that 17 million barrels moved through the strait on Monday with US Navy assistance; Vice President JD Vance said at Thursday's briefing that about 15 million barrels were escorted on Wednesday, against roughly 20 million before the war [1]. Independent trackers remain far below that. Lloyd's List Intelligence counted 102 transits last week and 126 the week before, compared with 130 or more per day prewar, and TankerTrackers.com put the past 28 days at about 5 million barrels a day, with other recent estimates ranging from 2 million to 6 million [1]. Brent crude hovered above $95 a barrel on Thursday, against about $72 the day before the conflict began [1].

Asked Thursday whether the fighting could end before the 3 November elections, Vance said "I wouldn't call it a war" and that "right now, there is no active shooting," while arguing the US had a "responsibility" to carry out this week's strikes because Iran keeps targeting commercial vessels in the strait [1]. AP notes Iran fired at US Gulf ally Kuwait on Thursday as it continued retaliating for those strikes [1]. Iran and Oman have recently discussed a phased approach to jointly managing ship traffic through the strait [1].