Kpler data cited by Herald Business (Sep 29) shows crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 9.36M bpd in September, up 3.56M bpd from August, the highest since US airstrikes began late February [1]. Pre-war baseline was ~15M bpd; current figure represents ~60% recovery. Tankers increasingly transit with AIS off, making independent verification difficult. WTI futures traded $91-95 on Friday, ~20% below the $119 post-war peak [1]. Saudi Aramco launched a spot tender for September-November crude delivery via transshipment in Omani waters, a route requiring Hormuz passage [1]. Iraq, which relied on Hormuz for >90% of exports pre-war, is pushing tankers through [1].

DataPortuaria weekly report (Sep 21-27) shows Hormuz crossings at 132, up 13.8% from 116 the prior week [2]. Laden movements recovered from 50 to 65, ballast fell from 46 to 38. 96.2% of crossings used Route Undetermined or Iranian Unilateral Scheme; only one crossing used the Hormuz TSS. Three merchant vessels were attacked during the week: AL MARYAH and LR STEPHANIE on Sep 21, CAPE DAO on Sep 23 [2].

UKMTO 143-26 (Sep 29) records a commercial vessel struck by a suspected projectile Sep 28 evening; fire extinguished, vessel underway, crew safe — latest in a pattern of strikes against Hormuz transits [per Day 212 post]. Insurance-based closure remains operative; oil passage through Hormuz cannot be independently confirmed.