A projectile struck an inbound tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on 21 September, two crew suffering minor injuries per UKMTO [1]. Security firms linked the vessel to Greek operators [1]. Iran maintains its assertion of control over the waterway, while US Central Command counters that Hormuz remains open and has assisted over 2,000 ships and 1B+ barrels [2].

Oil continues moving through a costly shuttle. Crude exports cleared through Hormuz reached ~6.5M b/d in September, highest since the June ceasefire, carried largely by shuttle tankers crossing the strait and transferring offshore near Fujairah or Sohar [3]. GoO STS liquids hit a record 7.2M bd for September 26-to-date, crude 6.9M bd [4]. Saudi Arabia has sold ~60M barrels from Ras Tanura for September-October loading via STS off Sohar, Gulf exports running 1.0-1.5M b/d [3].

The insurance-based closure remains operative [3]. GoO STS hubs Fujairah and Sohar are reported near capacity; longer shuttle routes to West Coast India or Malaysia would sharply reduce vessel productivity, requiring up to 58 VLCCs versus 25 for Gulf-based STS [4]. MEG-China VLCC freight is quoted at $30+/bbl versus ~$20 for Gulf of Oman loading [3]. Visible weekend transits fell to 17 from 37 the prior weekend, many oil movements running dark [3]. Actual oil passage cannot be fully confirmed from visible counts alone.