The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic on an insurance basis, with oil passage through the chokepoint unconfirmed [3]. A drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline — the kingdom's primary alternative route for Gulf crude — has disrupted that option and is forcing Saudi Arabia to reconsider routing through Hormuz despite the security risks [1]. This creates a paradox: the alternative corridor is compromised even as the strait itself remains largely shut.

Preliminary ship-tracking data shows only three commercial vessels transited the strait on September 17, against a 10-day average of 17 [1]. Kpler data cited by Reuters indicated four vessels on Sep 17, three inbound, reflecting the difficulty of tracking dark transits [2]. The IRGC named the tanker in its Sep 17-18 strike claim as the Togo-flagged product tanker Trend, 7,119 dwt, managed from the UAE, last seen anchored off the UAE on Sep 15 [2]. UKMTO confirmed a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile near Khasab, fire extinguished, crew safe [2].

On the casualty front, the body of a second missing crewmember from the tanker Hercules Star — attacked Sep 9 off the UAE — has been found, with surviving seafarers repatriated [2]. CENTCOM's redirected vessel count rose to 105 since the mid-July blockade [2]. The IMO confirmed 80 attacks on international shipping in and around the strait by Sep 15, with at least 22 seafarer deaths [2].

Insurance-based closure remains operative and war risk premiums continue to price most commercial operators out of the corridor [3]. While crude tanker traffic held relatively steady at 59-60 non-Iranian-linked transits in the week ending Sep 6, the overall threat environment and the pipeline disruption make any near-term reopening unlikely [1][3].