Visible commodity transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell again over the September 19-20 weekend. Kpler data showed 17 trackable vessels per Ship Universe [1] (The National reported 14 per a slightly earlier Kpler print [2]), down from 35-37 the prior weekend, keeping the strait in single-digit territory [1][2]. Eleven vessels exited and three entered; seven exiting ships took the Iranian route, and some transits ran dark with transponders off [2].

Oil volumes are recovering through a workaround rather than through normal direct voyages. Crude exports cleared through Hormuz reached about 6.5 million barrels per day in September — the highest sustained level since the brief June ceasefire — carried largely by shuttle tankers that cross the strait and transfer cargo offshore near Fujairah or Sohar [1]. Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman are expected to reach 2.5 million b/d in September, up 79% from 1.4 million b/d in August and roughly 40% of current Hormuz oil flows [1]. Kpler recorded GoO STS liquids at a record 7.2M bd for September 26-to-date, with crude at 6.9M bd [3].

Saudi Arabia is feeding the shuttle: Reuters reported a ~60 million barrel Ras Tanura-to-Sohar STS book for September-October, with Gulf exports running 1.0-1.5M b/d [1]. Kpler counted 22 tankers carrying 42M barrels out through Hormuz in the week of September 13, Saudi and Iraqi each 43% [1]. A live Pinios-to-New Constant STS transfer was underway September 21 [1].

The insurance-based closure remains operative and visible counts alone cannot confirm oil passage [1][2]. Freight for MEG-China VLCCs is quoted at $30+/bbl versus ~$20 for Gulf of Oman loading, and GoO STS hubs Fujairah/Sohar are reported near capacity [1][3]. Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf warned the strait stays closed until Tehran's conditions are met; CENTCOM says it has assisted 2,000+ ships and 1B+ barrels [2]. Bab al-Mandeb commodity traffic also fell to 48 from 57 [2].