The Financial Times and Politico.eu report that President Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a plan under which Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi set out a seven-day timeline contingent on US asset releases, lifted oil sanctions, and a halt to hostilities [1][2]. ABC News and WKYC contest the rejection claim, saying an active Iranian deal remains on the table [1]. This is new against the previous post, which recorded Iran awaiting Trump's response [1].

Shipping data remains dire. IMF PortWatch recorded 1 transit on 2026-09-20 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85/day [1]. Commodity transits fell to single digits on 25 September per Khaleej Times, cited by GEF [2]. Windward counted 10 inbound and 2 outbound on 23 September, the day the bulk carrier Cape Dao was struck with an Indian sailor killed [1][2]. Independent flow estimates run 3.7-8m b/d (Tankertrackers, Bloomberg) against CENTCOM claims implying about 16.4m b/d [2]. Oil passage through Hormuz cannot be confirmed from these counts [1][2].

Saudi Arabia's East-West bypass pipeline restarted 22 September, but Yanbu loadings had not resumed as of 25 September; Houthi missiles targeted the Yanbu area and France is sending air defences [2]. Brent settled $104.32 on Friday 25 September, down 2.24% on the session [1][2]. As of 17:49 UTC, 261 AIS-visible vessels held position away from berth in the Hormuz/Gulf watch box [1]. GEF's AIS captures on 26 September show the Iranian coastal core at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm, some new names in the channel, and no satellite-only contact for a fourth morning [2].