Kpler's latest weekly data shows Hormuz crude clearance averaged 13.19M bpd in the week to September 27, about 77% of the 17.13M bpd prewar baseline [3]. The figure is a meaningful step up from the 9.36M bpd monthly average for September reported two days ago [1], suggesting an acceleration in the final week of the month. Saudi Arabia accounted for 2.58M bpd through Hormuz in September, representing 43% of the strait's oil traffic, up from roughly 1M bpd in August [2].

QatarEnergy LNG carriers resumed Hormuz transits in the week to September 25, with at least five vessels running dark (AIS off) through the strait [1][5]. This is the most sustained Qatari LNG activity through Hormuz since early July, when the country largely halted exports after a vessel was attacked [5]. Asian spot LNG prices fell from a four-year high of $29.56/MMBtu toward $26.20/MMBtu on improved supply outlook, though traders are holding a risk premium until exports resume at commercial scale [5]. QatarEnergy has extended delivery suspensions for some customers in Europe and Asia [1].

The strait remains effectively closed on an insurance basis. War-risk insurance prices commercial transit beyond the reach of most operators, with six P&I clubs withdrawn [4]. IMF PortWatch recorded one transit on September 27 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 per day [4]. Iran shipped just 100K bpd through Hormuz under the US naval blockade in September, down from 2.5M bpd in February [2]. The East-West pipeline restarted after a September 10 drone attack but flows remain below pre-attack levels [2].

Diplomatically, Trump rejected Iran's seven-day reopening proposal on September 26, saying Tehran wanted access because they're losing so badly [1][2]. Iran's foreign minister met Qatari mediators in New York while awaiting a US response [2]. Combined flows through Hormuz, Bab Al Mandeb and Suez fell 61% below February levels [2].

Oil passage through Hormuz cannot be independently confirmed despite Kpler figures. Tankers increasingly transit with AIS off, and the insurance-based closure means most operators cannot legally transit [3][4]. The PortWatch observation date is September 20, making it stale relative to current conditions [4].