Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to the lowest in more than two months, Reuters reported on October 8, as attacks on tankers reached their highest weekly level since the Iran war began [1]. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) logged nine attacks in the strait and Gulf in early October, half the total for all of September, with the pace accelerating in the final days [3]. At least 12 attacks on oil, LNG, and LPG tankers were recorded in the week to October 5 [1][3].

Iran declared on October 8 that transit routes deemed illegal — specifically the southern route hugging Oman's coast — would soon be closed, with IRGC adviser Naqdi claiming full strait control [1]. US Secretary of State Rubio disputed this on October 7, saying Iran had "lost complete control" and that oil flow was nearly at prewar levels [1]. These claims cannot both be verified from current reporting.

Crude shipments through Hormuz have been volatile. Kpler data cited by CNBC showed exports averaging 10.3 million bpd for the week ended October 4, about 23% below the 13.5 million bpd prewar baseline [2]. Windward estimated 9–10 million bpd versus a 14.5 million prewar baseline [2]. Tanker crews face severe risk: since July at least nine sailors dead, 18 injured, three missing per IMO [2]. Shipping costs to China have reached roughly $1 million per tanker per day [2].

The insurance-based effective closure remains operative [1][2][3]. A Reuters transit count is not an independent oil volume measurement, and AIS vessels under way in the wider Gulf are not completed strait crossings. Independent oil passage through Hormuz cannot be confirmed from current reporting.