Crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to prewar levels, but refined products remain severely constrained and three vessels were struck in a single day [1][2].

Kpler data published Sept 30 shows a seven-day average of 13.5 million bpd crude transiting Hormuz as of Monday Sept 28, matching the prewar baseline [1]. Combined crude and product flows reached 14.2M bpd, about 80% of the ~17M bpd prewar level [1]. JP Morgan estimates 17.5M bpd (98% of prewar) and Vortexa puts crude at 14M bpd, a six-month high [2]. Goldman Sachs estimates total Persian Gulf crude exports above 23M bpd last week [2].

The recovery is uneven. Refined product shipments through Hormuz were 677,000 bpd vs 3.6M prewar [1]. About 70% of crude crossing in August switched to ship-to-ship transfers off UAE/Oman, and 40% of Gulf crude now bypasses Hormuz via pipelines [1]. The Saudi East-West pipeline, shut by an Iraqi drone strike, shows loading at Yanbu suggesting restart [1].

Security conditions remain severe. UKMTO reported three incidents on Oct 1 — two oil tankers and one LNG carrier struck by projectiles — potentially the most attacks in a single day since July [2]. Insurance-based closure remains operative and independent oil passage counts stay unconfirmed [1][2].