The Strait of Hormuz has moved to an effective commercial closure, per war-risk insurance pricing, on Day 196 of the crisis [1]. The previous post (Sep 12) described QatarEnergy LNG resuming Hormuz transit and Gulf exports above 10M bpd; those figures are now superseded by an insurance-based shutdown that blocks most operators despite naval-escort convoys still moving through the strait [1].

IMF PortWatch recorded 6 transits on Sep 6 against a typical 85/day — 7% of pre-crisis volume [1]. War-risk insurance for a VLCC sits at roughly $10M, 40x peacetime levels, with 6 P&I clubs withdrawing cover [1]. As of 23:56 UTC Sep 12, 448 vessels were holding position away from berth [1]. The Hormuz Index crisis pressure reads 95 (extreme band), escalation probability 57 (elevated, easing -1) [1].

Oil passage cannot be confirmed from AIS counts alone: PortWatch captures AIS-broadcasting crossings and most of the gap appears to be reception loss rather than deliberate evasion, so true flow may run higher than the 6-vessel figure [1]. Convoys under naval escort are moving, but these are military-protected transits, not measured commercial oil volumes. The insurance effective closure is not proof zero ships pass, but it confirms commercial operators cannot cover the risk at prevailing rates.